Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

This market asks whether Ukraine will formally agree to surrender control of the remaining Donbas territory it currently holds before the end of 2026. Specifically, it resolves Yes if Ukraine reaches a publicly announced deal ceding de facto military control of major cities like Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Pokrovsk to Russia or Russian-aligned forces. The agreement must come through diplomatic negotiation rather than military conquest, and a mutual announcement or strong consensus reporting will trigger resolution.

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